Curse

CrustyEarl · Jan 14, 2011, 12:02 AM // 00:02

This is all amusing of course that the GW1 servers are even up long enough for this to be a problem if it should arise. Does anyone think they will keep GW1 going long after GW2 is released? I don't. I think there will be a grace period for people to transition then poof. It cost money to keep servers going and while they may do it for a while, it just seems silly to extend it for too long.

LordDragon · Jan 14, 2011, 12:45 AM // 00:45

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrustyEarl

This is all amusing of course that the GW1 servers are even up long enough for this to be a problem if it should arise. Does anyone think they will keep GW1 going long after GW2 is released? I don't. I think there will be a grace period for people to transition then poof. It cost money to keep servers going and while they may do it for a while, it just seems silly to extend it for too long.

Diablo 1 is still up and running. I see no reason they would shut down GW1 completely while the company still has a major game going. The amount of players will get smaller and smaller thus making it cheaper and cheaper to keep GW1 up and running.

Bright Star Shine · Jan 14, 2011, 01:35 AM // 01:35

Yeah, they'll now people will play it out of nostalgia, and some new ones might actually go through the trouble to play it out of curiosity, no need to take it down..

TheGizzy · Jan 14, 2011, 05:11 AM // 05:11

Quote:

Originally Posted by drunknzelda

Tbh it would ruin their next game. You can't start a new game with a currency injection like that, would make things very unbalanced.

There is actually a certain logic to this argument, and it is an issue various gaming companies I've worked for previously have had to contend with.

One thing people rarely realize is that when you create a virtual world, you also have to have people on staff fulfilling roles of their real-world counterparts. The obvious one is "police." They're usually called moderators. But did you realize that they also employ economists?

At some point, Anet has had their resident economists examining this issue... they've either done so already and made a decision about it, or they're in the process of making the decision. But I guarantee, by the time GW2 hits the shelves, the staff responsible for balancing the in-game economies will have considered the ramifications of allowing or disallowing this, and their EULA will reflect that decision.

If I had to make a guess based on what I've seen so far, my guess would be that the EULA will make such trades forbidden. Two points lead me to this... one, that promotional articles and clips about GW2 have been very specific in saying that these are two separate, distinct games. Though the lore is a continuation of the timeline (200 years in the future), they've almost gone out of their way to explain that these games are separate and distinct entities.

Second, is the existence of the HoM. There's a psychological/marketing component here, too: rewarding loyal players. Lure old players back, excite current players, give new players something to work towards... you generate money for the company during the development process of the new product (GW2), and you create a strong, existing fanbase before your new product ever hits the shelves. I can tell you from experience on the business side of things that players will QQ at the top of their lungs if you are rolling out a new product in the same lore-line without rewarding players for having been loyal to your old product. Some companies choose to forge ahead regardless, counting on their marketing to draw in customers... others are, in my opinion, smarter about it and say, "you stuck with us...we're making it worth your while."

By the same token, there are some 6billion+ people who haven't touched an ANet product yet, and some of them are going to show up when GW2 is released. They're another (significant) portion of what will ultimately comprise the GW2 fanbase... and ANet has to be careful to not alienate them unduly from the start. There's already going to be QQ'ing on the part of this new customer base... "I bought this game, I should have the same advantages as everyone else...I shouldn't have to have bought ANOTHER game just to benefit in this one!" Trust me, they will get flooded with complaints like that, I promise. Right or wrong, people have a strong sense of entitlement and QQ to the heavens when they feel they're not getting the same as everyone else.

If, in addition to HoM rewards, they are also allowing players in their NEW title to gain advantages for having played the OLD title (via trades, for example)... the QQ'ing will only increase, and ultimately, ANet knows the truth of gaming: Your new potential fanbase is actually more fickle than your existing one. We think as loyal players, we're the ones ANet is going to want to soothe. The reality is, because they aren't a pay-to-play effort... they've already GOT our money. Our power is actually less than we think it is. ANet knows the other truth of gaming: the majority of gamers will only stand on their principles so far, and then they cave. Hold up a new shiny toy, and no matter how badly you've screwed over your existing fanbase in the past, the majority will come back... they'll be unable to resist.

None of this is pretty from the player side of things (and it makes us look like a bunch of sheep), but from the business end - the trend always plays out the same.

We do not have anywhere near the power we often think we have. A company will (and honestly, from the business end, should) focus on pleasing the new/potential customers over the existing/loyal customers. You throw the existing fanbase a bone to gnaw on... while you lure in the new with a candle lit prime rib dinner.

And it works. Time and again, it works.

yitjuan · Jan 14, 2011, 07:06 AM // 07:06

WTS level 80 run for 30 HOM points PM plz

you mean something like that , it would cost around 200-300e. I do suppose there would be a good secondary market for GW2 players who want their 30 HOM points.

Xx_Sorin_xX · Jan 14, 2011, 08:39 AM // 08:39

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedDog91

I'll put it this way, if you feel the need to justify doing it, it's probably illegal.

Funny. I see people feeling the need to justify just about anything they do here.

Iuris · Jan 14, 2011, 10:32 AM // 10:32

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrustyEarl

This is all amusing of course that the GW1 servers are even up long enough for this to be a problem if it should arise. Does anyone think they will keep GW1 going long after GW2 is released? I don't. I think there will be a grace period for people to transition then poof. It cost money to keep servers going and while they may do it for a while, it just seems silly to extend it for too long.

I do believe Anet has stated that the GW1 servers are NOT going down. They might get replaced by a single PC as they'll only need to serve a few dozen people trying to buy off each other's Kanaxai for ever increasing amounts of ectos

A11Eur0 · Jan 14, 2011, 11:37 PM // 23:37

I highly doubt it'll be enforced even if technically it's against the EULA. If you're competent enough to set that trade up in the first place, you're competent enough to make sure you don't get scammed. it'll be no different than trading something in gw1 that doesn't have HOM bonuses for something that does, because that directly affects your account in GW2. Trading something low-end early on in GW2 for something late-game in a dying GW1 to get a HOM point, thus giving you one step closer to a HOM reward in gw2, same thing just a little more involved. I'd personally quit both games immediately if I got any kind of warning or reprimand for doing something like this.

*lemming* · Jan 15, 2011, 09:17 AM // 09:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheGizzy

But did you realize that they also employ economists?

At some point, Anet has had their resident economists examining this issue...

What economist would recommend a policy that allowed Shadow Form to exist?

TheGizzy · Jan 15, 2011, 10:27 AM // 10:27

Quote:

Originally Posted by lemming

What economist would recommend a policy that allowed Shadow Form to exist?

I don't know enough about the skill or about how players use it to answer this with any specific insight. I'm guessing from the little bit I read (and am assuming it's had an impact on the economy or you wouldn't have mentioned it) that Shadow Form is used in farming or speed clears of more lucrative areas. I know nothing of the history of either buffs or nerfs this spell has gone through. So I've got nothing but pure speculation...

A gaming economist has one of the most difficult jobs in the industry. Everything affects in-game economies to one degree or another, and a balanced economy will make or break a game faster than anything. Lackluster graphics or poor game mechanics can be resolved... repairing an economy once it has gone over the brink is nearly impossible. I won't say it is utterly impossible... but I've never once seen a game recover successfully from a truly decimated economy. A duping incident (or even a chain of them) can wreak havoc, and left to flourish for any length of time will... but a direct cause/effect hit like that can usually be solved with a (albeit, painful) rollback.

What takes down a game economy to being unrecoverable is usually something subtle... it can be something like a skill that is buffed just right, leading to long-term (weeks...months) buildup that goes by unnoticed until something else calls attention to it purely by chance.

The interconnections of influences in the game are complex, yet they have to be tracked. As I said, I don't know anything about SF or how it's used, but let me throw out some conjecture to illustrate the possible thought process...

Let's say SF is used very successfully to farm ecto's. So you've got a group of players that are pulling in stacks of ecto's left and right. These probably aren't new players... that kind of farming takes some skill and basic understanding of game mechanics, not to mention the time it takes to have a toon capable of accessing the areas where such farming becomes profitable.

Those players are using those ecto's to say... buy HoM weapons & armor. Or they're being traded to other players who are using them to buy HoM weapons & armor, and probably mini's. But in the end, most of those items end up where? Dedicated into the HoM... and thus, either decreasing in value or, in essence, becoming utterly without value at all. And where do the ecto's end up? Probably sitting in the storage chest of account holders who have now filled their HoM and are off doing other things waiting for GW2 to be released. They, like the weapons/armor/mini's they're used for, go into the economy... and then, in essence, come back out of it.

It's kind of ingenious, really... the HoM became one gigantic money sink. I pay you 250e for that uberspecialweaponofmastery... I dedicate it. It's now essentially worthless. Armor? Worthless. Can't be worn by anyone else, has zero value. No way of salvaging it back "measure for measure" as it were. It's never going to be worth what was paid for it. Mini's - dedicate them, their value drops.

All these high-end items that people are paying gobs of money for are, essentially, worthless once they get into someone's HoM. And the ectos used to buy them are probably languishing in an account somewhere, owned by someone busy playing Fallout: NV until GW2 hits the shelves.

It's a giant money sink... it's a BALANCING tool for the economy. It's also a way of hyping people up for GW2. But you've got to make that 50/50 (or at least 30/50) attainable, too. Answer? Buff up a skill like SF, get your old & tired players hyped up about filling their HoM... give them SF on a platter to help in the process, knowing it's pretty useless for your new players... and let the players feel like they're "pulling a fast one."

Somewhere, someone has a chart they've made that tracks the impact of SF... what ripples it causes through the economy... and somewhere in that chart is the balancing effect for SF. If it's being used to farm and speed clear, then I suspect the HoM is where the balancing effect comes from.

What are the specifics? I don't know... not enough information to even offer decent speculation. This post is nothing but wild speculation on my part, based on vast generalizations of some of the steps I've seen taken in other games. What I DO know is that GW has one of the most balanced game economies I've seen. It remains functional. GW isn't subject to rollbacks. The markets haven't tanked despite massive fluctuations in player base (whether from apathy or influxes during festivals). The uber weapons and armors are still attainable with time and effort, but time AND effort are still required. That's a functional economy.

Which means yeah, they've got a balancer built in for whatever effect SF has... because believe me, if the economy were tanked, it wouldn't even be a question. Everyone would know it, everyone would have 50/50 in their HoM, there would be no WTB/WTS trades happening, the PC/Buy/Sell forums here wouldn't have any posts, etc. The game would be dead. The community would be dead. It's unmistakable when it happens.

It hasn't happened here.

Boogz · Jan 15, 2011, 11:17 AM // 11:17

If its against EULA, I do not know, but I know it is stupidity.

There's absolutely no guarantee that the person you're trading with will actually go into the other game, search for you and give the items. It's not worth the risk, I'd never trust a stranger that much on GW, only some guildmates and friends.

*lemming* · Jan 15, 2011, 11:35 AM // 11:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheGizzy

-snip-

I don't mean to be a douche, but you spent a hell of a lot of effort in writing a post that you admittedly based on nothing but speculation.

If I were to guess, I'd probably say that Anet isn't employing any economists, because they'd undoubtedly be citing their professional opinions to justify decisions to their players.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boogz

If its against EULA, I do not know, but I know it is stupidity.

There's absolutely no guarantee that the person you're trading with will actually go into the other game, search for you and give the items. It's not worth the risk, I'd never trust a stranger that much on GW, only some guildmates and friends.

http://www.d2jsp.org/

Bright Star Shine · Jan 15, 2011, 12:28 PM // 12:28

I hate to break it down to you dude, it's a nice post, but you know nothing about what this skill does and has done to this game, so this post is 100% useless. I'll try to explain it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheGizzy

(and am assuming it's had an impact on the economy or you wouldn't have mentioned it)

It's the biggest impact on economy since the introduction of the gold coin...

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheGizzy

Shadow Form is used in farming or speed clears of more lucrative areas.

You can farm/tank pretty much everything with it. And with bonds, it kind of makes you invincible. Details on the skill, see below.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheGizzy

I know nothing of the history of either buffs or nerfs this spell has gone through.

This skill used to be the iqqdq from Guildwars, it was LITTERALLY godmode. At first, ALL spells against you failed, and ALL attacks against you missed. Only downside, it was for like 25 seconds on a 60sec cooldown, before the introduction of cons. And, after it ended, you lost all but ~50hp, so at first, this skill kind of sucked. But then, Anet made it maintainable, otherwise said, you were invincible for 100% of the time, with a 10 energy spell. Later on, they removed the health loss, but made it so that you could do max 24-26 damage when under it's effect. But that was also before sliver nerf, so you were still a god. Then, FINALLY, they made it so that attacks against you DID hit, so you took at least some damage. But they threw in a 5 damage reduction for each assassin ench on you, and since you have SF and usually Shroud of Distress, and hopefully some sort of shield with the right +10vs X you were a demigod instead of Zeus himself throwing lightning at the sorry ass monsters that roam in GW..

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheGizzy

A duping incident (or even a chain of them) can wreak havoc, and left to flourish for any length of time will... but a direct cause/effect hit like that can usually be solved with a (albeit, painful) rollback.

You do know that there was a duping incident back in '07, right? Where they duped thousands of armbraces and rare minipets. There was a server shutdown (I think) and lots of people banned. I was running around in DoA at the time, and people were selling armbraces for 10k each, getting banned 5 minutes afterwards... At that time, armbraces were still 50e+

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheGizzy

What takes down a game economy to being unrecoverable is usually something subtle... it can be something like a skill that is buffed just right, leading to long-term (weeks...months) buildup that goes by unnoticed until something else calls attention to it purely by chance.

There are little builds in Guildwars now that are still hidden, teambuilds in PvP, yes, but those don't stay secret for very long. I remember a build that was discovered once, it lasted 2 days, or 3, before it got nerfed, why? Because it was the most imbalanced build ever. It used Mark of Protection to reduce damage on a necro, who then jumped in the other team, and literally obliterated them within seconds. The guild that found this build camped HoH for over 5 hours before anyone else got a hold of it. The next days, everyone used it. It had something to do with sacrificing health, triggering Dark Aura, by using Cultist Fervor (but I don't remember the skill description from back then) the Shadow step that causes you to fail to cast enchants, and the blow-up skill, without recharge time. Not gonna explain it, the old schools will remember this for sure.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheGizzy

Let's say SF is used very successfully to farm ecto's.

This is about the understatement of the century. Before Halloween '09, the UW record was 7 minutes, with 1 guy who could do any area in 6 minutes, he has screenshots of all of this. So, if you had 8 copies of this guy, UW would be possible in 6 minutes. At that time, people were pulling the stacks of ecto's out their asses.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheGizzy

These probably aren't new players... that kind of farming takes some skill and basic understanding of game mechanics,

Again, you were a GOD back then, with SF up, ANYONE could do it. I was a total noob at the time, when it came to doing UW with SF, and I did it quite fine. If i would go back now, I would be one of those guys mentioned above, but meh.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheGizzy

not to mention the time it takes to have a toon capable of accessing the areas where such farming becomes profitable.

You can get a character to UW, ready to go in about 5 hours, if you get the help from guildies.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheGizzy

Those players are using those ecto's to say... buy HoM weapons & armor. Or they're being traded to other players who are using them to buy HoM weapons & armor, and probably mini's. But in the end, most of those items end up where? Dedicated into the HoM... and thus, either decreasing in value or, in essence, becoming utterly without value at all. And where do the ecto's end up? Probably sitting in the storage chest of account holders who have now filled their HoM and are off doing other things waiting for GW2 to be released. They, like the weapons/armor/mini's they're used for, go into the economy... and then, in essence, come back out of it.

This part makes kind of sense though, but the influx of ecto each day is WAY greater than the amount that goes into obby armor and chaos gloves (the only ecto deposit), so they are stockpiling like crazy. A lot of them are scattered in small amounts amongst low-lvl players, who occasionally PUG a UW or something, so they have like 10e max. Then you have the middleclass like me who has a couple hundred ecto's, up to 1000 tops. And then you have the insane rich people, with more stacks of ecto's than they have room for, and these are the ones that buy the asian mini's, because they don't have storage space anymore, to hold the ecto's.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheGizzy

It's kind of ingenious, really... the HoM became one gigantic money sink. I pay you 250e for that uberspecialweaponofmastery... I dedicate it. It's now essentially worthless. Armor? Worthless. Can't be worn by anyone else, has zero value. No way of salvaging it back "measure for measure" as it were. It's never going to be worth what was paid for it. Mini's - dedicate them, their value drops.

Of course it's ingenious, they thought this over, quite well..

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheGizzy

All these high-end items that people are paying gobs of money for are, essentially, worthless once they get into someone's HoM. And the ectos used to buy them are probably languishing in an account somewhere, owned by someone busy playing Fallout: NV until GW2 hits the shelves.

The richest of them all, stopped playing in like '06, and with richest, I mean, beyond your imagination..
And, everything in this game is essentially useless, since it's all a bunch of pixels anyway.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheGizzy

Buff up a skill like SF, get your old & tired players hyped up about filling their HoM... give them SF on a platter to help in the process, knowing it's pretty useless for your new players... and let the players feel like they're "pulling a fast one."

Anyone with more than 2 braincells can use SF, although I've seen quite a lot of people fail at it so far. And attaining 30/50 in my opinion is nothing short of piss easy, but that's just me.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheGizzy

Somewhere, someone has a chart they've made that tracks the impact of SF... what ripples it causes through the economy... and somewhere in that chart is the balancing effect for SF. If it's being used to farm and speed clear, then I suspect the HoM is where the balancing effect comes from.

There is no chart, there will never be, if there were one, they'd know they have to beat that skill with the nerf stick SO HARD, that it's even more useless than Second Wind. Ok, that's a lot said, but it's reign has held quite long enough.. This is ironic, since I use the skill daily to tank DoA, but I am convinced nonetheless that it shouldn't be this powerfull.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheGizzy

Which means yeah, they've got a balancer built in for whatever effect SF has... because believe me, if the economy were tanked, it wouldn't even be a question. Everyone would know it, everyone would have 50/50 in their HoM, there would be no WTB/WTS trades happening, the PC/Buy/Sell forums here wouldn't have any posts, etc. The game would be dead. The community would be dead. It's unmistakable when it happens.

Again, you haven't been around long enough to understand. This economy, vs how it used to be, is quite RED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GOed up. It's about as balanced as an elephant on a unicycle.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheGizzy

It hasn't happened here.

Again, yes it has.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boogz

If its against EULA, I do not know, but I know it is stupidity.

There's absolutely no guarantee that the person you're trading with will actually go into the other game, search for you and give the items. It's not worth the risk, I'd never trust a stranger that much on GW, only some guildmates and friends.

And this, I've explained before, because GW1 and GW2 are completely different games, you can run them at once. You can open trade in GW1 and in GW2 at the same time, so it is still based on a bit of trust that he will also accept in GW2, but if he doesn't, it's not like you lost so much.. And, I've done a couple trades myself where I had to trust the other person, and they all turned out just fine. Of course you got the occasional #1 bastard, but you can find comfort in the fact that they will never succeed in life..

Bassma · Jan 15, 2011, 05:56 PM // 17:56

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yawgmoth

This kind of trading can't generate new currency in the new game, GW2 is a fresh new start for everyone no matter what they got in GW1. So in the beginning expect absurd exchange rates like GW1 250ecto -> GW2 a couple gold pieces (that a month later will be farmable in 1-2hours).

The thing is GW1 will die or be dead by the time GW2 comes along or shortly afterwards. I played both EQ and EQ2 and there wasn't any fantastic trades going on from one game to another. Most NORMAL players will only play 1 game either or so it's not somthing that will flood either game with money or items. When one game is sure to die I sure wouldn't want 250 ectoes in it when nobody is going to have anything I want to buy with them anyway.

Star Wars Galazies is another that actually LOST credibility when it changed to the new NGE and players left in swarms thus creating hordes of items nobody wanted and hordes of credits with nothing to spend them on. When I went back to it players were giving me 2 million credits each when I would meet them. It was a laugh and really made my crafting game worthless as there was really nobody to craft for or sell my stuff to.

Same thing happened when I went back to Anarchy Online after years away from it.

The difference in online worlds vs the real worlds is they die off, players get tired or bored with them and leave and goto another game. Can't do that in the real world. Guild Wars even now has lost a great abundance of players it's very easy to see when the majority of outposts and towns are just ghost centers.

So when GW2 is released you will see such a population exodus from GW1 you'll think it's ghost town of a game. It's happened to all the old ones, EQ, AO, AC, DAOC, poor Shadowbane lost 3/4ths of its player base. Plus WOW has taken so many of the players and its still popular and #1 but even it will eventually start to die down as newer and greater models of it are released. Guild Wars 2 could have been that one but its model is still bad with no loot content as the majority of players like quality increasing powerful loot and neverending quests.

Aldric · Jan 15, 2011, 07:01 PM // 19:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheGizzy

Snip

Nice long post TheGrizzy but completely wrong for the most because if Anet has an economist and that economist has a chart that shows there are balances in place to the OPness and gamebreakingness of Shadowform then that economist is a complete and utter RED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GOing retard.

Any game designer who thinks that SF's version of perma godmode is a good thing is an idiot and should be beaten with his/her own very rarely use nerf bat.

Bright Star Shine · Jan 15, 2011, 07:04 PM // 19:04

I think some sort of this will occur though.. Some people might be curious of what GW1 was like and want to come take a look, and realize that they can get cool stuff out of it, but there is no time to buy all that stuff, so they will turn to old-scholers like us who still have stuff they can use for their armors/weapons etc.. But what will they pay with? Well, something small in GW2 most likely, it won't be monster trades, but they will be happy, and we will have a use for our stockpiles of ecto's.. Everybody happy..

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bassma

Guild Wars 2 could have been that one but its model is still bad with no loot content as the majority of players like quality increasing powerful loot and neverending quests.

How do you know, did you already play it?

shoyon456 · Jan 15, 2011, 08:16 PM // 20:16

If I could, I would sell the HoM rights of my 50/50 GWAMM GW1 account for some cash since GW1 isn't getting the updates it's been promised and GW2 makes me gag.